“prediction markets could unlock trillions by unbundling risk from traditional derivatives”
ARK Invest sizes the prediction market opportunity at $1-5 trillion medium-term by benchmarking against global OTC derivative volumes. Argues that sports volumes are largely regulatory arbitrage from states without legal online sports betting and that the real disruption lies in event contracts unbundling risk from traditional derivatives, giving retail investors direct exposure to discrete outcomes.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase