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The Financialization of Uncertainty

Kaviish·April 6, 2026·Twitter
prediction markets are valued for an information future that sports revenue alone can't justify

Why It's Worth Reading

Industry analysis mapping $63.5 billion in 2025 prediction market volume and a $200 billion+ 2026 run rate. Identifies a structural tension: sports drive current revenue (83% of Kalshi volume), but valuations price in an information infrastructure future that hasn't arrived yet. Argues distribution platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase will capture most value as they vertically integrate into exchange infrastructure.

No technical background needed

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket

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