“prediction markets are just the first layer of a probability infrastructure that will price everything”
Argues that prediction markets are a proof of concept for a broader shift: probability as infrastructure. Proposes three 'probability layers' beyond trading: attention markets that price content virality forward, credibility markets that turn trust into a continuously updated score, and demand markets that capture consumer intent before production. Frames the endgame as probability signals embedded invisibly into every decision surface on the internet.
No technical background needed
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket