“Election prediction markets are less accurate than their promoters claim”
Examines Clinton and Huang's research on 2024 election market accuracy, finding PredictIt at 93%, Kalshi at 78%, and Polymarket at 67%, while also documenting significant cross-platform price divergences for identical contracts near Election Day. Raises concerns about Kalshi's media partnerships with CNN and CNBC, arguing they create incentives for sensational coverage of market movements and potential manipulation of thin markets.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, PredictIt, Polymarket