“prediction markets are crypto's first native asset class, not just gambling”
Frames prediction markets as crypto's first truly native financial primitive, one that couldn't scale on traditional finance rails due to regulatory chokepoints. Traces the historical pattern where financial innovations move from 'gambling' to infrastructure, and argues that margin and derivatives layers are the missing pieces that will unlock institutional capital. Highlights the unique properties of prediction market positions: time-bounded decay and binary convergence to truth, which create a distinct trading mechanic the author calls temporal arbitrage.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket