“prediction markets need better oracles and liquidity to unlock billions in sports betting”
Bottoms-up TAM analysis arguing prediction markets can reach $85-200B annual volume by 2028 through sports betting capture (5-20%), event-driven financial hedging, and emerging categories. Covers five infrastructure challenges that must be solved: liquidity sustainability (subsidized MM transitioning to self-sustaining), discovery/UX, trade expressiveness (leverage faces gap risk unique to binary markets), permissionless market creation, and multi-tier oracle resolution. Identifies 2026 World Cup and midterms as critical stress tests.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi, Hyperliquid, Limitless Exchange