“prediction markets hit product-market fit but can't escape their own local maxima”
Argues Polymarket and Kalshi have achieved product-market fit but remain stuck at a local maxima. Identifies three barriers: insufficient liquidity (small trades can materially reprice markets), lack of competitive parity with sportsbooks on parlays, and inability to resolve complex outcomes like the Time Person of the Year market resolving to 'other'.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi