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A Small Prediction Market Design Taxonomy

aaronjmars·November 22, 2025·Twitter
prediction markets are evolving far beyond simple yes-or-no bets

Why It's Worth Reading

Comprehensive taxonomy of 14 prediction market mechanism types beyond standard binary markets. Covers bonding curve markets, opinion markets (beauty contests), opportunity markets (private prices), hyperstition markets (self-fulfilling coordination), futarchy (MetaDAO), perpetual markets, quantum markets (capital-efficient parallel conditionals), and no-loss PMs. Each design optimizes for different goals: accuracy, speed, coordination, or outcome manifestation.

Some technical background helpful

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi, Trendle

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