“betting on near-certain outcomes still carries hidden risk from information asymmetry”
First-person account from a seven-figure prediction market trader. Covers strategy as a 'bond mule' (locking capital for small premiums on near-resolution markets), OSINT information sources (non-English media, Telegram), fractional Kelly sizing, and trading personality-driven markets. Notes edge has compressed as space matured.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket