“kalshi's longest parlays are priced almost entirely detached from their odds”
Kalshi's ultra-long parlays are priced with almost no relationship to the odds implied by their legs. Takers on combinations below a cent have lost well over half their stakes, and thousands of parlays implying a one-in-a-thousand chance likely had less than a one-in-a-billion chance of hitting. They show almost no price sensitivity, and because Kalshi counts both sides of each trade, these bets are 60% of volume but 1% of fee revenue. Market makers capture the difference.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi