“prediction markets survive by solving regulatory riddles, not by predicting events”
Contrary Research delivers a comprehensive deep dive into the prediction market industry, tracing its history from the Iowa Electronic Markets through Kalshi and Polymarket's current dominance to the latest sportsbook entrants. The piece analyzes business models, regulatory classification debates, and the critical skew in win distribution that distinguishes prediction markets from sports betting.
No technical background needed
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Augur, Iowa Electronic Markets, DraftKings, Crypto.com, Gemini, Interactive Brokers, CME Group