“the Fed's sequential decisions are not independent - ignoring correlation in parlay pricing produces 5x overpriced markets”
Terry Lee shows how prediction market parlays are systematically mispriced because traders treat events as independent when they are actually correlated. Using Fed rate decisions as a case study, he builds a conditional probability framework that reveals parlays up to 5x overpriced or 2x underpriced compared to naive multiplication. A practical guide to finding edges in event correlation.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket