“Play-money markets work only because nobody cares enough to rig them”
Argues play-money prediction markets are accurate only because they operate in a low-manipulation regime, and this accuracy is self-undermining: the more important they become, the more valuable they are to manipulate. Contrasts the manipulation resistance of real-money markets against the economic noise they introduce, including opportunity cost, hedging distortion, and participation friction.
No technical background needed
Platforms mentioned: Metaculus, Manifold