“prediction markets are growing up, but full collateral still locks out big money”
a16z's overview of institutional adoption of prediction markets, centered on Kalshi. Outlines a three-stage framework: using markets as data sources, integrating them into compliance workflows, and finally actively hedging risk. Sports hit $3B weekly volume but reached an all-time low as a share of total volume, while entertainment, crypto, and culture categories show stronger retention. The main bottleneck for institutional participation is full notional collateral requirements, which Kalshi is addressing through margin trading licenses.
No technical background needed
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi