“adding leverage to prediction markets creates a $50 million fee opportunity but breaks down during jump events”
Landscape report comparing four models for adding leverage to prediction markets: lending pools (Gondor/Morpho-style), prime brokers (Ultramarkets), synthetic desks (CFD counterparties), and perpetual futures (dYdX TRUMPWIN). Sizes the fee revenue opportunity at $15M base case to $50.7M bull case, with 87% driven by financing revenue on open interest rather than trading fees. All four models share a structural dependency on CLOB venue architecture that degrades during jump events.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi