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RegulationAnalysis

Trading on Violence

Rajiv Sethi·March 2, 2026·Substack
insider trading thrives when markets reward those who know what others don’t

Why It's Worth Reading

Documents a pattern of insider trading on prediction markets, from wallets that profited $1.2 million on the timing of US strikes on Iran to trades linked to classified intelligence. Compares how Kalshi's KYC-based surveillance and Polymarket's pseudonymous blockchain create different enforcement challenges. Argues platforms should reconsider contract offerings before regulators act.

Some technical background helpful

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi

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