“insider trading thrives when markets reward those who know what others don’t”
Documents a pattern of insider trading on prediction markets, from wallets that profited $1.2 million on the timing of US strikes on Iran to trades linked to classified intelligence. Compares how Kalshi's KYC-based surveillance and Polymarket's pseudonymous blockchain create different enforcement challenges. Argues platforms should reconsider contract offerings before regulators act.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi