“Prediction markets don't reveal truth, they manufacture it for the highest bidder”
Seva Gunitsky argues that prediction markets create three distinct dangers for global conflict: military insider trading at scale, manipulation of outcome resolution, and propaganda advantages for autocratic regimes. The article walks through real cases including the Israeli Air Force betting scandal and the 'hair dryer problem' — cases that challenge the idealistic framing of prediction markets as truth machines.
No technical background needed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi