“prediction markets beat polls when the crowd has skin in the game”
Proposes a tiered framework for evaluating prediction market reliability, ranking financialized economic indicators highest and speculative prop bets lowest. Outlines three practical use cases: triangulating against traditional polls, nowcasting delayed economic data in real time, and hedging event risk. Draws on a Federal Reserve paper validating Kalshi's data quality and Tetlock's forecasting research to ground the argument.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket