“prediction markets are repeating social media's mistakes with real-money stakes”
Argues that prediction markets are following the same trajectory as social media — starting with idealistic narratives about information aggregation but devolving into gambling, manipulation, and regulatory arbitrage. Highlights Meta's new prediction market app Arena, insider trading cases like the US Special Forces Maduro raid bet, and regulatory crackdowns in Brazil, Minnesota, and Spain. Warns that putting prediction markets in Meta's hands repeats social media's biggest mistakes with the added danger of real-money incentives.
No technical background needed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi, Meta