“prediction markets need cross-subsidization, like ads once funded investigative journalism”
Frames prediction market prices as public goods whose benefits are non-excludable but whose liquidity costs fall on a narrow trader base. Proposes cross-subsidization as the growth mechanism: profitable markets fund socially valuable ones that can't sustain themselves, the same way newspaper ads funded investigative journalism. Also argues that accuracy isn't the only axis of value, showing how markets can serve risk transfer (hedging hurricane or policy exposure) and information accountability functions even when prices drift from pure probability.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi, Hyperliquid