“kalshi’s fee structure turns prediction markets into a poker rake, not a sportsbook”
Data-driven analysis of Kalshi's business model using all 203 million trades across $41.7B in volume. Reveals that Kalshi functions more like a poker rake than a sportsbook, charging fees via the formula fee = 0.07 × C × P × (1-P), which incentivizes trading near 50% probability. Key finding: sports comprise 82% of total volume, making Kalshi functionally a sports betting platform despite its CFTC-regulated derivatives positioning. Includes clear explanations of order book mechanics, binary contract pricing, and the regulatory framework (clearinghouse structure, no-action letters) alongside original data visualizations of volume distribution and resolution patterns.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, DraftKings, FanDuel