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Who Are You Really Playing Against?

Jay Malavia·September 18, 2025·Twitter
Prediction markets beat sportsbooks because peer-to-peer exchanges slash the house edge from 12% to 3%

Why It's Worth Reading

Compares the traditional sportsbook house model with prediction market exchanges to explain why exchanges offer better odds. Uses data showing Betfair's ~3% overround versus bookmakers' ~12% to argue that peer-to-peer exchange models produce fairer pricing and welcome all winners, unlike sportsbooks that limit successful bettors.

No technical background needed

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Betfair

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