“prediction markets reward math, not luck, when you measure edge in the order book”
Provides a quantitative framework for distinguishing gambling from systematic trading on prediction markets, including a five-point diagnostic and three trader archetypes classified by profitability. Explains why Polymarket's CLOB creates renewable structural arbitrage by design, and covers Kelly position sizing, adverse selection measurement via fill quality, and probability term structure as tools for building a repeatable edge.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket