“prediction markets don't fail on price but on deciding what actually happened”
Argues the hardest PM problem isn't pricing but deciding what actually happened. Proposes cryptographically-committed LLMs as resolution judges—trading human bias and conflicts of interest for more tractable technical vulnerabilities. Cites Polymarket disputes (Venezuela election, Ukraine map, government shutdown) as evidence current systems fail at scale.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket