“topic predicts volume; rule wording adds little, and the edge decays across platform change”
Across a near-census of 802,863 Polymarket markets resolved between January 2023 and May 2026, launch-time information alone - title, description, named resolution source, metadata - predicts lifetime volume at out-of-sample R-squared 0.747; topic does most of that work, wording and rule design far less. The skill does not survive platform change: predicting $1,000 in volume falls from 0.940 to 0.577 AUC when training on earlier quarters. Dispute risk ranks well (AUC 0.78) but is useless per market at a 0.31% base rate.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket