Library/Prediction Markets: The 'Oracle Problem' Is Not the Problem
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Prediction Markets: The 'Oracle Problem' Is Not the Problem

Aradtski·July 29, 2025·Twitter
the real oracle problem is defining what counts, not who reports it

Why It's Worth Reading

Argues the Oracle Problem for prediction markets is actually a definition problem, not a trustlessness problem. Lists 12+ Polymarket controversies where contention arose from ambiguous event definitions, not oracle failures. Proposes that proprietary centralized oracles with platform stake are preferable to decentralized mercenary capital.

Some technical background helpful

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Polymarket

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