“historic data needs careful filtering to reveal the highest-signal predictions”
Not all historic data is equally useful for prediction. Eric Menser argues that treating all past games as equally relevant misses the higher-signal comparisons buried in specific contexts - team matchups, announcer crews, and game types. Trade Butter enriches Kalshi word market resolution history with broadcast metadata to surface sharper signals.
No technical background needed
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Trade Butter