Library/Will Jesus Christ Return in an Election Year?
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Will Jesus Christ Return in an Election Year?

March 25, 2025·Forum Post
a 3% chance of jesus returning hides a million-dollar arbitrage trap

Why It's Worth Reading

Examines the paradox of a Polymarket on Jesus Christ's return trading at 3% with over $100k wagered. Identifies two mysteries: why no one arbitrages the mispricing (requires ~$1M lockup for minimal 1% return), and why anyone bets 'Yes' at all (true believers, resolution gaming, or novelty value).

No technical background needed

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Polymarket

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