“the top 1% of prediction market traders take 76.5% of all profits”
The first comprehensive empirical look at who actually profits on Polymarket and who doesn’t. Analyzing 588 million trades and $67 billion in volume, the paper finds the top 1% of users capture 76.5% of profits through disciplined limit order strategies, while the bottom 90% lose money taking liquidity with market orders. The authors also examine and ultimately rule out insider trading as an explanation for the largest winners’ performance.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket