“Traders buy the cheaper token, not the one labeled yes”
Analyzes 7,292 resolved Polymarket markets and 28,793 on-chain trades to test whether yes bias exists in trade data. Finds that traders buy whichever token is cheaper, not whichever is labeled YES, and that the apparent bias is a compound effect of longshot preference channeled through Polymarket's "Will X happen?" question framing, which systematically assigns the longshot to the YES token.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket