conditional markets

Event-driven markets whose trades settle on real assets only if a specified outcome occurs, so prices express how much an event changes asset values rather than just the probability it happens. Decision and impact markets are subsets—the former settle an explicitly binding decision, the latter only pay out on the conditional asset price.

Cluster: Governance & Decisions

Related Concepts

• decision markets — Prediction markets explicitly designed to inform specific decisions by forecasting outcomes of each option.
• impact markets — Markets that trade on the expected social impact of projects, funding those predicted to be most effective.
• conditional tokens — Tokens representing positions contingent on specific outcomes, enabling composable prediction market positions.
• hedging — Taking offsetting positions to reduce exposure to adverse price movements or uncertain outcomes.

Articles about conditional markets

• Conditional Markets Are Beginning to Blossom: Decision Markets Scale, Impact Markets Head to Mainnet by Zack Pokorny