Library/Explainer on Self-Resolving Prediction Markets
DesignExplainer

Explainer on Self-Resolving Prediction Markets

michaellwy·November 11, 2025·Blog
peer prediction replaces ground truth with crowd consensus to keep markets honest

Why It's Worth Reading

Explains the SKC (Srinivasan, Karger, Chen) mechanism for prediction markets on unverifiable outcomes. Markets resolve using crowd consensus as the outcome, with delta-based scoring rewarding participants for moving markets toward final consensus. Enables markets for subjective questions lacking ground truth.

Some technical background helpful

Concepts

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