“a displayed probability is a forecast; an actionable quote is an offer”
Kalshi prices are read as forecasts, but calibration and tradability are different estimands. Joining 937 live snapshots to resolutions and 57,808 markets rebuilt from order-book candles, midpoints look nearly perfectly calibrated, yet a 1.98 point gap is statistically real and economically uncapturable. Under standard fees all 20 bucket-direction intervals run below zero, and expectancy stays negative even at zero fees. A displayed probability is a forecast; an actionable quote is an offer.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi