“kalshi’s 0.99 price correlation with sportsbooks hides a 76% liquidity drop in-game”
Data-driven analysis benchmarking Kalshi's sports markets against traditional sportsbooks. Kalshi's monthly volume grew 80x to $14.4B in March 2026, with NCAA March Madness generating $3.3B in notional volume comparable to total US wagered on the tournament. In-game prices correlate at 0.99+ with FanDuel, but Kalshi's taker fees (up to 3.5% at midpoint) and thinner in-game liquidity (76% depth decline vs pre-game) currently limit institutional execution. Includes a valuation comparison showing Kalshi priced as an exchange ($20B) vs sportsbooks trading at 2-4x revenue.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel