“an event contract's legal classification decides where prediction markets can operate”
A comparative legal analysis of how the United States and the European Union classify event contracts — the standardized binary contracts at the core of prediction markets. On the US side the debate has centered on the CFTC and whether event contracts are commodities, derivatives, or gambling; in Europe the picture fragments further, with member states split between gambling law, financial-instrument regimes, and bespoke regulatory tests. Annunziata and de Arruda map the two regimes against each other, asking what an event contract 'is' in law — and why that answer shapes where prediction markets can operate at all.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket