Library/Prediction Markets between the United States and the European Union: A Comparative Analysis of the Legal Classification of Event Contracts
RegulationResearch Paper

Prediction Markets between the United States and the European Union: A Comparative Analysis of the Legal Classification of Event Contracts

Filippo Annunziata, Thomaz de Arruda·January 1, 2026·Academic Paper
an event contract's legal classification decides where prediction markets can operate

Why It's Worth Reading

A comparative legal analysis of how the United States and the European Union classify event contracts — the standardized binary contracts at the core of prediction markets. On the US side the debate has centered on the CFTC and whether event contracts are commodities, derivatives, or gambling; in Europe the picture fragments further, with member states split between gambling law, financial-instrument regimes, and bespoke regulatory tests. Annunziata and de Arruda map the two regimes against each other, asking what an event contract 'is' in law — and why that answer shapes where prediction markets can operate at all.

Some technical background helpful

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket

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