“arbitrage in prediction markets is never truly risk-free when referees disagree”
Explains why apparent arbitrage opportunities between Polymarket and Kalshi often aren't risk-free. Different rule definitions, resolution criteria, and oracle systems mean seemingly identical markets can resolve differently. Argues prediction markets are fundamentally non-fungible due to differing referee systems, leading to permanent landscape fragmentation.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi