Library/Research Brief: Estimating U.S. User Activity in Offshore Prediction Markets
RegulationResearch Paper

Research Brief: Estimating U.S. User Activity in Offshore Prediction Markets

Harry Crane·June 1, 2026·Blog
nearly a third of polymarket's volume flows from u.s, users beyond regulators' reach

Why It's Worth Reading

The first rigorous estimate of U.S. user activity on offshore prediction market platforms finds that ~30% of Polymarket's $55.6B trailing twelve-month volume comes from U.S.-based users. Across all offshore platforms, U.S. activity totals $11-34B, representing 12.5-31.5% of all U.S. prediction market volume. Prepared for the Coalition for Prediction Markets, the report estimates offshore U.S. volume could reach $133B annually by 2030.

Some technical background helpful

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion, Limitless, Predict, Myriad Markets

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