“prediction markets can't scale because speculators want fast payouts, not long-term bets”
Argues prediction markets face fundamental barriers to scaling beyond sports and elections due to misaligned incentives: speculators demand rapid resolutions (42% of election volume in final week), investors prefer wealth-building assets over locked capital, and market makers need consistent retail flow that doesn't exist for niche topics.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair