“prediction markets that beat options replication will win institutional capital first”
Provides a framework for understanding which prediction market categories can win institutional capital, using variance risk premium analysis to determine where event contracts beat options replication. Situates the current benchmark-building race (election ETFs, corporate event notes, AI capability markets) within the historical pattern of credit and crypto infrastructure formation.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket, Roundhill