prediction markets

Markets where participants trade contracts tied to future event outcomes, with contract prices serving as real-time collective forecasts.

Cluster: Information Theory

Related Concepts

• polymarket — A crypto-based prediction market platform built on Polygon, enabling peer-to-peer trading of binary event contracts settled via trusted oracles.
• forecasting accuracy — Measuring how well predicted probabilities match actual outcome frequencies over many events.
• information aggregation — The process by which markets combine dispersed private knowledge into a single consensus price signal.

Articles about prediction markets

• Prediction Markets Underperform Simple Baselines For Infectious Disease Forecasting by Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno