A prediction market strategy of betting on near-certain outcomes (>95% probability) to earn a small but reliable yield, analogous to holding a zero-coupon bond to maturity. The 'yield' is the gap between the market price and the $1 payout, but carries catastrophic tail risk if the improbable outcome occurs.
Cluster: Liquidity & Trading
A prediction market strategy of betting on near-certain outcomes (>95% probability) to earn a small but reliable yield, analogous to holding a zero-coupon bond to maturity. The 'yield' is the gap between the market price and the $1 payout, but carries catastrophic tail risk if the improbable outcome occurs.
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